Game 2: Custom Poisoner Open Setup (Preseaon)

Don Jalapeno wrote:yeah so poisoner shouldn't claim d1? i thought that's what we were discussing

Oh gawd no

We're talking about poisoner claiming day two, not day one, sorry for the confusion
Lord why will the poisoner claim day one? That'll be pretty much light-hearted gamethrow

yeah

Don Jalapeno wrote:and NL d1 isn't a good play too since everyone will be agreeing upon NL-ing and that'll reduce the quality of the reads (cuz wagonomics)

Okay we were talking about completely different things,
I'm talking about NL in a mylo aka day two situation. But we're past that. Let's move on.

well NL-ing in mylo is the play lol srry for the confusion

[quote="Kliff"]Stay active Fam[/quote

I felt that

Greg Universe wrote:

Kliff wrote:Stay active Fam

I felt that

[/quote]

mood

anyway so this just turned into a 2 person convo real quick. poisoner imo shouldn't claim d2 i don't see how town would benefit from that, fact is outside of maybe lylo i don't see a situation where we want poisoner to claim cuz then they just get brainshocked by maf.

in the meantime unlynch don jalepeno they've been active so i'll just hop off cuz they haven't done anything scummy so far saying that no one has cuz barely anyone has talked, including me yes i am a hypocrite

Hugh Test wrote:

Greg Universe wrote:

Kliff wrote:Stay active Fam

I felt that

mood

anyway so this just turned into a 2 person convo real quick. poisoner imo shouldn't claim d2 i don't see how town would benefit from that, fact is outside of maybe lylo i don't see a situation where we want poisoner to claim cuz then they just get brainshocked by maf.

in the meantime unlynch don jalepeno they've been active so i'll just hop off cuz they haven't done anything scummy so far saying that no one has cuz barely anyone has talked, including me yes i am a hypocrite

I made a post about that but I'll say it again - assuming we will mislynch today, in technical theory we will go to lylo tomorrow. There's no physical way of preventing that other than lynching or poisoner idle, which is stupid.

yeah so if mafia kills VT tonight and we misslynch today, and poisoner claims tomorrow, it'll be 3 vts, 1 poisoner and 2 mafia. If poisoner claims then it'll be 3 vs 2 scenario where we'll be more likely to lynch scum

So I did some statistics...

This is entirely based on the fact that we lynch each day and the poisoner poisons every night. I'm also assuming the poisoner doesn't die and I haven't factored in events where the mafia kills the poisoner's target or the os brainshocker (I find that the probability for the mafia to kill the poisoner's target on the same night rather low). So seeing how this plays out, it's ideal that poisoner poisons somebody tonight and we have two lynches to work around with. In this simulation there are thirteen possible routes and of those thirteen, town wins nine times. The fractions indicate the probability of the player indicated in light green dying.

The chance of poisoner dying for each night in the each route is given below.




Seeing this, I don't think it's ideal for the poisoner to claim even on d2 (unless they're about to be lynched or they were intercepted by the brainshocker and they end up poisoning themselves). The highest chance that the poisoner dies is on n2, which is 1/3. But of course we should factor in the brainshocker as a given for n2, so there's another 1/3 of a chance that poisoner poisons themselves.

If there is a situation to nl, then it's tomorrow in the event the poisoner dies or poisons themselves. Again, this is a rather low probability. Another option would be to nl today and leave it up to lylo tomorrow. But this is definitely something we shouldn't risk considering winning from that position is entirely dependent on the dialogue, and since we still don't have everyone talking, this is a no no.

Of course if you do find a mistake feel free to point it out. I might make more of these considering how the game develops.

Also, I don't think anyone who has committed to talking extensively is someone we should lynch today. If a person who did talk a lot today were to be mafioso, then we could always go back and reread then lines to see if anyone has said something scummy.

unlynch Hugh Test

lynch Cannonbolt

Kk by PoE, Tee Dee is scum

because 1) Greg Universe is like highly unlikely to be scum
2)Same thing goes for Tinky Winky cause scum would obviously not help town by working their ass off to form those thesis
3) Tee Dee posted a whole block of reads early d1 as i said without explaining them a bit
4) Hugh Test is null
5) Rest are basically not talking at all. If tee dee flips scum then cannon bolt is scum too since cannon bold were their scumread but Tee Dee didn't lynch them and instead went for Hugh Test (If tee dee flips scum hugh test is clear from my PoV)

because 1) Greg Universe is like highly unlikely to be scum
2)Same thing goes for Tinky Winky cause scum would obviously not help town by working their ass off to form those thesis
3) Tee Dee posted a whole block of reads early d1 as i said without explaining them a bit
4) Hugh Test is null
5) Rest are basically not talking at all. If tee dee flips scum then cannon bolt is scum too since cannon bold were their scumread but Tee Dee didn't lynch them and instead went for Hugh Test (If tee dee flips scum hugh test is clear from my PoV)

Don Jalapeno wrote:because 1) Greg Universe is like highly unlikely to be scum
2)Same thing goes for Tinky Winky cause scum would obviously not help town by working their ass off to form those thesis
3) Tee Dee posted a whole block of reads early d1 as i said without explaining them a bit
4) Hugh Test is null
5) Rest are basically not talking at all. If tee dee flips scum then cannon bolt is scum too since cannon bold were their scumread but Tee Dee didn't lynch them and instead went for Hugh Test (If tee dee flips scum hugh test is clear from my PoV)

I'm a bit late, but reading through I've made some reads, and this quote lets me directly discuss the general reads atm (because this does seem to be a somewhat general thought).

1) Greg Universe is active, yes, but has done nothing too major to locktown them, and there's no real reason to place anything more than a tl here. Additionally, they have been focused on how to play the setup, and less so on srs/trs, which is something of a scumtell, actually.
2) Thank you Tinky Winky for making those probability trees, but this does not scream town. Scum can make these just as easily, and post them to get towncred. As such, Tinky Winky is a null imo.
3) Don Jalapeno has a) sred someone for an opening statement (which are supposed to be crazy anyway), b) complained about the scumsided nature of the setup, which one might read as NAI, but imo it's a natural way for scum to seem less sided with scum, c) has wanted poisoner to claim relatively early, which is a scum strat given OS brainshocker - Poisoner should NOT claim unless being lynched, and d) has made reads that I don't agree with really, as you can already see, so to me they seem like fake reads.

Therefore, Lynch Don Jalapeno

4) as for the rest, I don't have reads because of inactivity or generallynot having said anything too alignment indicative.

My pfp is trash btw

Honestly, nobody should really be lock town at this stage of the game. But I still think our priority right now is to lynch those who aren't active, because we don't have lots of chances to policy people. If scum were to be someone who is active, then it's much more likely that scum would say something scummy or even slip over an extended period of time, so we could easily pick them off on d2 or d3, if we get there.

Also I do agree with @Chris Mclean that it's absurd to sr someone just for making an opening statement. Usually lynches at the beginning of the game are just done to have the game rolling.

Don Jalapeno wrote:Ez ggs my dudes Cannonbolt + Chris Mclean are mafia, and Weevilunderwood is poisoner, im vt and everyone else too ggs
Im interested in how u derived that scumread in early d1. W0W
Lynch Dee Dee

^ Lol its rather funny to get sred for saying 3 random people are a role, as an opening message, when i am the second/third person to talk ahaha omg so funny haha

Don Jalapeno wrote:Hm yeah. For now i'll stick to my Dee Dee lynch since how they gave reads early day one without explaining them at all is scummy

^hahaha omg haha wow i didnt explain my srs wow haha almost like they hadnt even talked yet haha, why are you not going for everyone else who placed a lynch without explaining it? Hypocrisy hahaha omg haha

Don Jalapeno wrote:Kk by PoE, Tee Dee is scum

Don Jalapeno wrote:because 1) Greg Universe is like highly unlikely to be scum
               2)Same thing goes for Tinky Winky cause scum would obviously not help town by working their ass off to form those thesis
               3) Tee Dee posted a whole block of reads early d1 as i said without explaining them a bit
               4) Hugh Test is null
               5) Rest are basically not talking at all. If tee dee flips scum then cannon bolt is scum too since cannon bold were their scumread but Tee Dee didn't lynch them and instead went for Hugh Test (If tee dee flips scum hugh test is clear from my PoV)

^ lol  Greg is not highly unlikely to be scum, just because he sent a couple messages discussing the same thing over and over with you means nothing
2) Scum would "town" to get that exact responsse from town people like you who cant see effort without thinking "wow he must be town!!"
3) hahahahaha bro so funny
4) Hugh Test is actually your mafia partner

Unlynch Chris Mclean
Lynch Don Jalapeno

hello sorry for being inactive

Page one takeaways: slight tr don, dee dee's entry read awk asf. might just be a tonal thing though.

poisoner shouldn't even consider claiming rn unless being lynched (haven't broken down the setup in my head enough to know whether d2 is optimal, or what gameplay string is optimal in general), kneejerk glance at is says d1 NL for the sake of letting poisoner do his/her thing is objectively awful for the sake of progressing the gamestate and solving down the POE

my ava looks like its from ben 10 or smthn, if anyone recognizes it lmk

Hugh Test wrote:

Greg Universe wrote:

Kliff wrote:Stay active Fam

I felt that

mood

anyway so this just turned into a 2 person convo real quick. poisoner imo shouldn't claim d2 i don't see how town would benefit from that, fact is outside of maybe lylo i don't see a situation where we want poisoner to claim cuz then they just get brainshocked by maf.

in the meantime unlynch don jalepeno they've been active so i'll just hop off cuz they haven't done anything scummy so far saying that no one has cuz barely anyone has talked, including me yes i am a hypocrite


[/quote]
self aware bbcakes?

Tinky Winky wrote:Also, I don't think anyone who has committed to talking extensively is someone we should lynch today. If a person who did talk a lot today were to be mafioso, then we could always go back and reread then lines to see if anyone has said something scummy.

unlynch Hugh Test

lynch Cannonbolt

nah the inactives will wind up getting subs probably, and probably getting an extension on the already shortish 48hr day 1. i'd be shocked otherwise, activity will pick up afterwards probably

Chris Mclean wrote:

Don Jalapeno wrote:because 1) Greg Universe is like highly unlikely to be scum
               2)Same thing goes for Tinky Winky cause scum would obviously not help town by working their ass off to form those thesis
               3) Tee Dee posted a whole block of reads early d1 as i said without explaining them a bit
               4) Hugh Test is null
               5) Rest are basically not talking at all. If tee dee flips scum then cannon bolt is scum too since cannon bold were their scumread but Tee Dee didn't lynch them and instead went for Hugh Test (If tee dee flips scum hugh test is clear from my PoV)

I'm a bit late, but reading through I've made some reads, and this quote lets me directly discuss the general reads atm (because this does seem to be a somewhat general thought).

1) Greg Universe is active, yes, but has done nothing too major to locktown them, and there's no real reason to place anything more than a tl here. Additionally, they have been focused on how to play the setup, and less so on srs/trs, which is something of a scumtell, actually.
2) Thank you Tinky Winky for making those probability trees, but this does not scream town. Scum can make these just as easily, and post them to get towncred. As such, Tinky Winky is a null imo.
3) Don Jalapeno has a) sred someone for an opening statement (which are supposed to be crazy anyway), b) complained about the scumsided nature of the setup, which one might read as NAI, but imo it's a natural way for scum to seem less sided with scum, c) has wanted poisoner to claim relatively early, which is a scum strat given OS brainshocker - Poisoner should NOT claim unless being lynched, and d) has made reads that I don't agree with really, as you can already see, so to me they seem like fake reads.

Therefore, Lynch Don Jalapeno

4) as for the rest, I don't have reads because of inactivity or generallynot having said anything too alignment indicative.

i like you

reading into dee-dee's posts this game is just gonna suck huh? her tone makes me
also why does frigging weevil get the best avatar