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Game 1AAA: Semi-Open Setup (Preseaon)

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Nibbles
Larry Needlemeyer
Quacker
Darwin Watterson
Banana joe
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Larry Needlemeyer
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:58 am
Jerry Mouse wrote:If anyone else would like to claim with the cascade of claims that have come, please do so now. We're at the point where the game can be partially solved mechanically and now is the best time to claim to make sure the solve doesn't lack crucial information.

As it stands, the claims are as following:

Gumball is a not-DayVig

Darwin is an OS Watch Immune Doc who docced Gumball the not-DayVig

Tom the OS Roleblocker blocked Darwin the OS Watch Immune Doc from doccing Gumball the not-DayVig

Jerry (me) is the Tracker who tracked Darwin to nowhere



The 2 roles that could stop a kill, Tom the Roleblocker and Darwin the Doc, have stopped a kill. Darwin the Doc has been confirmed to have gone nowhere by Jerry the Tracker.

That means that the kill was not stopped by a "Doc", ergo the kill was stopped by the Roleblock. Since Darwin was the roleblocked player, he is mechanically confirmed to be scum.

This is why it is important for any other possible influential role to claim now, or forever hold your tongue, as any new information that will change this solve needs to be announced right now.
Quoting this mostly to +1 i even though im vaguely salty this means my read on tom was probably off
the only other alternative to this solve is jerry himself is lying about the track which is a bad play regardless of faction, so yeah.
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:22 pm
Night 2 Commence
Final Vote Count 2.3

Hammer! Day 2 has been concluded


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Gumball Watterson (0) -


Darwin Watterson (4) -
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Tom Cat (2) -
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Nibbles (0) -

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Larry Needlemeyer (0) -

PLayers Who Arent Lynching-
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Darwin watterson was lynched, He was:

Role PM:

You have 24 hours to Send any night actions or idles in discord or on here. Deadline Will be 11:30 am November 11th EST. At this time you may not Post until Day have begun
Kliff
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:26 am
Day 3 Commence
Plurality applies, Hammer:3. If hammer is Reach before Deadline, Night Phase Will begin. You have 75 hours left by the time this post was created. (enjoy 3 more hours because I won't be available at 11:30 am to start the day)


Night 2 has been concluded


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Larry Needlemeyer (0) -

PLayers Who Arent Lynching-

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Quacker died last night, He was:


Role PM:


Deadline Will be 11:30 am November 14th EST. At this time you may post
Jerry Mouse
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:59 am
........Alright what the fuck

We're massclaiming today. None of this makes any sense any more, Darwin had 0 spew, Tom and Darwin were somehow both telling the truth and we're in LyLo.

on the record, we have Gumball fakeclaiming dayvig then retracting, leaving him unclaimed. We have Nibbles and Larry as unclaimed. I'm a Tracker who can confirm Tom's roleblock on Darwin, and Tom is an OS Roleblocker.

Even including the possibility of Tom being a Mafia Roleblocker, that still doesn't solve the missing nightkill, leaving us with Gumball, Nibbles and Larry needing to claim to piece together the game mechanically.

There's also a possibility that the scum idled their kill, which incriminates Tom here because rn only he had a reason to idle.


My head is spinning pretty hard rn over the events of yesterday, can you three come in and claim quick so I can actually figure out what's happening?
Nibbles
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:23 pm
I'm os commuter, popped last night. Jerry and Tom are conf scum, unless we consider the interesting point of a scum idle N1 but I don't see what that achieves. Jerry your track result is useful if we're solving mechanically.

Why is Tom scum if there was an idle? I would have thought it would be Gumball to keep us in 2v5 where a shot puts us in pmylo so he wouldn't have to actually shoot.

In my opinion, this is a Jerry + Tom scumteam with Jerry making a last ditch bus attempt with the tracker claim to ensure a Darwin lynch yday but the idle point makes it not conf so I won't lynch just yet.
Nibbles
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:36 pm
I do think that the lynch is Tom today and we see what we get from that (in terms of role, not alignment, because we need alignment to be scum and it's almost certain that it is).
Nibbles
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:37 pm
Is it possible that Tom rbed Jerry and scum tried to kill gumball?
Nibbles
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:41 pm
Well I really want to lynch rn but other mechanics should be sorted out first
Jerry Mouse
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:54 pm
There is no world where I sacrifice myself, who is in a strong position, for Darwin especially when you consider 1:1 trades to be favoured for town.

Gumball idle is an interesting idea to prevent himself from needing to shoot actually. I didn't even consider that.

I tracked Quackers to obviously nowhere, I was predicting Nibbles or me to be the kill tbh.
Larry Needlemeyer
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:55 pm
Work freedom! I’m uh... suprised that didn’t flip red? I guess claims are in order rn. My role had nothing to do with whatever tf happened n1, watcher (no modifier) who watched jerry twice. Neither of these watches netted any info.
Either A: Scum Idle
Or B; its tom and jerry then?
Larry Needlemeyer
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:57 pm
Jerry Mouse wrote:There is no world where I sacrifice myself, who is in a strong position, for Darwin especially when you consider 1:1 trades to be favoured for town.

Gumball idle is an interesting idea to prevent himself from needing to shoot actually. I didn't even consider that.

I tracked Quackers to obviously nowhere, I was predicting Nibbles or me to be the kill tbh.
as wifom as this is, this kinda makes sense tbh
i kinda wanna bite on this but im like, where does that leave me?
blindspeccing about who on the D1 PL benefits the most from scum!idle implying scum? ugh what a clusterfuck
Larry Needlemeyer
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:00 pm
anyone else itt atm? i want someone to bounce off of
Gumball Watterson
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:05 pm
Wait wait I completely forgot about this my god. I really did leave you guys on a bad note, huh? Sorry about that.
I already did claim, I'm a Vanilla Townie, which actually seems weird now that I think about it, given the fact that I don't see any other VT claims? Either way, that was the whole reason of my fakeclaim. I was expecting a nightkill on myself instead of some kind of powerrole. I like what Jerry said about the possibility of a Mafia Roleblocker, though we're not exactly sure if mafia is the scum faction, are we?


Also y'all are talking about me idling as scum when in reality I did idle, but only because it's the only thing I could do haha
PS I actually missed n2 so I guess I got forceidled
Gumball Watterson
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:22 pm
Oh wait I didn't actually claim before. But yeah I'm VT
Larry Needlemeyer
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:41 pm
Gumball Watterson wrote:Wait wait I completely forgot about this my god. I really did leave you guys on a bad note, huh? Sorry about that.
I already did claim, I'm a Vanilla Townie, which actually seems weird now that I think about it, given the fact that I don't see any other VT claims? Either way, that was the whole reason of my fakeclaim. I was expecting a nightkill on myself instead of some kind of powerrole. I like what Jerry said about the possibility of a Mafia Roleblocker, though we're not exactly sure if mafia is the scum faction, are we?


Also y'all are talking about me idling as scum when in reality I did idle, but only because it's the only thing I could do haha
PS I actually missed n2 so I guess I got forceidled
Would it even be “forceidling” if you are a VT and were idling regardless€.€
Larry Needlemeyer
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:48 pm
VT claim is technically possible I guess? its probably NAI as a claim based on setup much as I wanna scumread a VT claim /me REEEE
Gumball Watterson
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:20 pm
Larry Needlemeyer wrote:
Gumball Watterson wrote:Wait wait I completely forgot about this my god. I really did leave you guys on a bad note, huh? Sorry about that.
I already did claim, I'm a Vanilla Townie, which actually seems weird now that I think about it, given the fact that I don't see any other VT claims? Either way, that was the whole reason of my fakeclaim. I was expecting a nightkill on myself instead of some kind of powerrole. I like what Jerry said about the possibility of a Mafia Roleblocker, though we're not exactly sure if mafia is the scum faction, are we?


Also y'all are talking about me idling as scum when in reality I did idle, but only because it's the only thing I could do haha
PS I actually missed n2 so I guess I got forceidled
Would it even be “forceidling” if you are a VT and were idling regardless€.€
Well yeah I'm assuming that's why I didn't get a ping from host to send my action, but either way it doesn't really matter since it's not something I can confirm
Larry Needlemeyer
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:38 pm
Gumball Watterson wrote:
Larry Needlemeyer wrote:
Gumball Watterson wrote:Wait wait I completely forgot about this my god. I really did leave you guys on a bad note, huh? Sorry about that.
I already did claim, I'm a Vanilla Townie, which actually seems weird now that I think about it, given the fact that I don't see any other VT claims? Either way, that was the whole reason of my fakeclaim. I was expecting a nightkill on myself instead of some kind of powerrole. I like what Jerry said about the possibility of a Mafia Roleblocker, though we're not exactly sure if mafia is the scum faction, are we?


Also y'all are talking about me idling as scum when in reality I did idle, but only because it's the only thing I could do haha
PS I actually missed n2 so I guess I got forceidled
Would it even be “forceidling” if you are a VT and were idling regardless€.€
Well yeah I'm assuming that's why I didn't get a ping from host to send my action, but either way it doesn't really matter since it's not something I can confirm
But- nevermind. More importantly talk to me. Are you caught up ITT?
Larry Needlemeyer
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:41 pm
If so you should know that one of two things happened:
Either A: Jerry lied about his track and scumteam is EXACTLY tom+jerry.
Or B: Scumteam idled kill n1.
Which is more likely iyo and why?
If you think the solve is B: sell me on who scum is.
Ftr I’m basically defaulting back to tom+1 rn. Regardless of whether scum idled or not (aka whether specifically: jerry is his partner) , tom is still probably scum imo.
Nibbles
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:04 am
Gumball Watterson wrote:Wait wait I completely forgot about this my god. I really did leave you guys on a bad note, huh? Sorry about that.
I already did claim, I'm a Vanilla Townie, which actually seems weird now that I think about it, given the fact that I don't see any other VT claims? Either way, that was the whole reason of my fakeclaim. I was expecting a nightkill on myself instead of some kind of powerrole. I like what Jerry said about the possibility of a Mafia Roleblocker, though we're not exactly sure if mafia is the scum faction, are we?


Also y'all are talking about me idling as scum when in reality I did idle, but only because it's the only thing I could do haha
PS I actually missed n2 so I guess I got forceidled

Firstly, the scumfaction is mafia. Look at the potential alignments on page 1.
Secondly, the tone of your messages has suddenly become super jokey which is weird imo and as much as I don't like to read into tone it does sound like you just trying to deflect attention.
Thirdly, vt with no modifiers or anything seems weird but is ok ig, but it seems slightly less ok since bananas role was vanilla town but just with a modifier and because this is a role madness semi-CS. This is kind of a stretch to read on though.
Nibbles
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:12 am
@Larry Needlemeyer I think we're still waiting on your claim.
Nibbles
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:13 am
Oh wait im being super dumb
Jerry Mouse
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:13 am
I looked at the setup on 1BBB, They had a single VT too so its a believable claim.

I'm going to assume Darwin told the truth, which means it's true Tom blocked Darwin.

That means scum idled. Which is ????? because actually wtf. Tom would seem to have a motive to idle, since he blocked Darwin and could claim that. But then what was his plan when Darwin flips Town? And on top of all that, would he have claimed if the pressure wasn't on him? Claiming right off the bat about a successful RB may have been more immediately effective after all, forcing the game into an immediate 1v1 between scumTom and townDarwin. But that falls apart when you consider that scumTom would just kill Darwin in that case and not incriminate himself, leading into a PMyLo Day 2. On top of all that, given how everyone believed Gumball was a DayVig, it makes no sense for scum to want to create a 1v1 situation to begin with, especially since town theoretically would have just vigged and lynched both, and 1 for 1s are terrible for scum.

Thus, I don't believe anyone in particular has anything mechanical on them. Assuming Town!Gumball, scum would think that Town had a dayvig. Idling to create a 1v1 hence makes no sense, since DayVigging>Lynching is a 1:1. Therefore the idle was performed to create a situation where the DayVig was neutralised, i.e a 2v5 where vigging wrong means putting town in mylo, making town hesitant to use it over their standard lynch. Assuming scum!Gumball, scum would know there is no real DayVig. That puts the whole of yesterday's play into a whole different light. Firstly, the idle would have been performed why? Thinking about it, there are few conclusions I can come to. Scum never wants to give control of the kills to Town, so intentionally nokilling means that scum wanted to play a 2v5 > 2v3 rather than a 2v4. The only logical reason I can fathom is nothing more than scum wanting to bamboozle Town and put us in this kind of situation, where we believe the kill was stopped. That means the scum must have had a plan to claim they stopped the kill, knowing that they wouldn't be dayvigged, and take the 50% chance that they're not lynched and the game goes into a 1v2. That's all incredibly WIFOM however, and very difficult to actually figure out motives because of a mix of weird claims and actions not adding up, which the scum apparently succeeded in doing.


However, to draw conclusions for this, I believe that Gumball is back to being very likely town mechanically despite the horrible claim, and if they were scum, they can only be with Nibbles. Hear me out here:

"Scumball means that scum knew there was no dayvig, and chose to put the game in a 2v5 to avoid gumball being exposed" is invalidated, in that case, Gumball wouldn't claim he was faking and would have just agreed with me when I advised against shooting. Gumball cannot be with Tom because Tom claimed incriminating evidence on a Town player. As a scum move, this goes 1:1 at best, and in the 1v2, leaving Gumball as the standing scum , which after the fakeclaim, I doubt they would want them as their last hope. In fact, after Gumball admitted to faking, if he was scum, he was immediately under huge risk of being instantly policied, or lynched for lying and causing problems for Town. For scum to want to take the risk of losing a scum, the last standing member has to be in an extremely strong position, and gain more from Gumball admitting he was lying rather than just quoting me and hiding his lie which wouldn't have been exposed since we would have gone into LyLo. The only person who fits that bill is Nibbles, being firmly lodged inside the consensus towncore, who was online to react to Gumball's fakeclaim, and who had a safe claim in OS Commuter.

However, I don't believe today is the day we hunt for a deepwolf. A Gumball/Nibbles scumteam plays us so hard here that they pretty much deserve to win if it's them, since they've made the chance of that possibility so minisculely low compared to the rest of the game that considering them is probably -EV at this point. Since Gumball's only possible partner is Nibbles, I want to proceed assuming that Gumball and NIbbles are both Town. Deep Nibbles may have other possible scumpartners, but I'll leave that to the final day if we have it since 2v3 with no red flips makes deepwolf hunting solely WIFOM.
Jerry Mouse
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:18 am
Of course all of that above post could be worthless WIFOM and the scum are just so big brain that they're making plays so garbage it becomes good. In that case yeah props to you you probably deserve the win too.


That makes my lynchpool rn Tom/Larry. I'll revise my opinion on them and decide on one later. I'm kinda leaning Tom rn because of...... yeah, mafia rb is a realistic role etc. etc, but I've been very biased about Larry d2 because sub and now I need to go take a fresh look. I'm gonna hop off the game for a bit first though because jesus this game is a shitshow and idt I can give my best for more than a couple of posts at a time for this.
Gumball Watterson
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:25 am
Nibbles wrote:
Gumball Watterson wrote:Wait wait I completely forgot about this my god. I really did leave you guys on a bad note, huh? Sorry about that.
I already did claim, I'm a Vanilla Townie, which actually seems weird now that I think about it, given the fact that I don't see any other VT claims? Either way, that was the whole reason of my fakeclaim. I was expecting a nightkill on myself instead of some kind of powerrole. I like what Jerry said about the possibility of a Mafia Roleblocker, though we're not exactly sure if mafia is the scum faction, are we?


Also y'all are talking about me idling as scum when in reality I did idle, but only because it's the only thing I could do haha
PS I actually missed n2 so I guess I got forceidled

Firstly, the scumfaction is mafia. Look at the potential alignments on page 1.
Secondly, the tone of your messages has suddenly become super jokey which is weird imo and as much as I don't like to read into tone it does sound like you just trying to deflect attention.
Thirdly, vt with no modifiers or anything seems weird but is ok ig, but it seems slightly less ok since bananas role was vanilla town but just with a modifier and because this is a role madness semi-CS. This is kind of a stretch to read on though.
I suppose since this is anon that's enough to be even a little bit sus about, but just know that being a little bit jokey usually isn't that scummy if there is still information along with it. I'm just trying to uh, lighten the mood a bit ^^
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