Game 1AAA: Semi-Open Setup (Preseaon)

Jerry Mouse wrote:I looked at the setup on 1BBB, They had a single VT too so its a believable claim.

I'm going to assume Darwin told the truth, which means it's true Tom blocked Darwin.

That means scum idled. Which is ????? because actually wtf. Tom would seem to have a motive to idle, since he blocked Darwin and could claim that. But then what was his plan when Darwin flips Town? And on top of all that, would he have claimed if the pressure wasn't on him? Claiming right off the bat about a successful RB may have been more immediately effective after all, forcing the game into an immediate 1v1 between scumTom and townDarwin. But that falls apart when you consider that scumTom would just kill Darwin in that case and not incriminate himself, leading into a PMyLo Day 2. On top of all that, given how everyone believed Gumball was a DayVig, it makes no sense for scum to want to create a 1v1 situation to begin with, especially since town theoretically would have just vigged and lynched both, and 1 for 1s are terrible for scum.

Thus, I don't believe anyone in particular has anything mechanical on them. Assuming Town!Gumball, scum would think that Town had a dayvig. Idling to create a 1v1 hence makes no sense, since DayVigging>Lynching is a 1:1. Therefore the idle was performed to create a situation where the DayVig was neutralised, i.e a 2v5 where vigging wrong means putting town in mylo, making town hesitant to use it over their standard lynch. Assuming scum!Gumball, scum would know there is no real DayVig. That puts the whole of yesterday's play into a whole different light. Firstly, the idle would have been performed why? Thinking about it, there are few conclusions I can come to. Scum never wants to give control of the kills to Town, so intentionally nokilling means that scum wanted to play a 2v5 > 2v3 rather than a 2v4. The only logical reason I can fathom is nothing more than scum wanting to bamboozle Town and put us in this kind of situation, where we believe the kill was stopped. That means the scum must have had a plan to claim they stopped the kill, knowing that they wouldn't be dayvigged, and take the 50% chance that they're not lynched and the game goes into a 1v2. That's all incredibly WIFOM however, and very difficult to actually figure out motives because of a mix of weird claims and actions not adding up, which the scum apparently succeeded in doing.


However, to draw conclusions for this, I believe that Gumball is back to being very likely town mechanically despite the horrible claim, and if they were scum, they can only be with Nibbles. Hear me out here:

"Scumball means that scum knew there was no dayvig, and chose to put the game in a 2v5 to avoid gumball being exposed" is invalidated, in that case, Gumball wouldn't claim he was faking and would have just agreed with me when I advised against shooting. Gumball cannot be with Tom because Tom claimed incriminating evidence on a Town player. As a scum move, this goes 1:1 at best, and in the 1v2, leaving Gumball as the standing scum , which after the fakeclaim, I doubt they would want them as their last hope. In fact, after Gumball admitted to faking, if he was scum, he was immediately under huge risk of being instantly policied, or lynched for lying and causing problems for Town. For scum to want to take the risk of losing a scum, the last standing member has to be in an extremely strong position, and gain more from Gumball admitting he was lying rather than just quoting me and hiding his lie which wouldn't have been exposed since we would have gone into LyLo. The only person who fits that bill is Nibbles, being firmly lodged inside the consensus towncore, who was online to react to Gumball's fakeclaim, and who had a safe claim in OS Commuter.

However, I don't believe today is the day we hunt for a deepwolf. A Gumball/Nibbles scumteam plays us so hard here that they pretty much deserve to win if it's them, since they've made the chance of that possibility so minisculely low compared to the rest of the game that considering them is probably -EV at this point. Since Gumball's only possible partner is Nibbles, I want to proceed assuming that Gumball and NIbbles are both Town. Deep Nibbles may have other possible scumpartners, but I'll leave that to the final day if we have it since 2v3 with no red flips makes deepwolf hunting solely WIFOM.

Larry Needlemeyer wrote:If so you should know that one of two things happened:
Either A: Jerry lied about his track and scumteam is EXACTLY tom+jerry.
Or B: Scumteam idled kill n1.
Which is more likely iyo and why?
If you think the solve is B: sell me on who scum is.
Ftr I’m basically defaulting back to tom+1 rn. Regardless of whether scum idled or not (aka whether specifically: jerry is his partner) , tom is still probably scum imo.

Gumball Watterson wrote:

Larry Needlemeyer wrote:If so you should know that one of two things happened:
Either A: Jerry lied about his track and scumteam is EXACTLY tom+jerry.
Or B: Scumteam idled kill n1.
Which is more likely iyo and why?
If you think the solve is B: sell me on who scum is.
Ftr I’m basically defaulting back to tom+1 rn. Regardless of whether scum idled or not (aka whether specifically: jerry is his partner) , tom is still probably scum imo.

Also before I get to this, is there anybody that HASN'T claimed yet?

Gumball Watterson wrote:Tbh I think Larry lied about the RB claim in order to make d1's kill seem like scum idled. I do think that Darwin successfully healed me, and that Larry could just be a goon or something.

Wait this is lylo isn't it

Gumball Watterson wrote:Tbh I think Larry lied about the RB claim in order to make d1's kill seem like scum idled. I do think that Darwin successfully healed me, and that Larry could just be a goon or something.

Wait this is lylo isn't it

Tom Cat wrote:Long story short, I just forgot to post. Now onto the matter of this. If we assume that Jerry is tracker, it is feasible to say that me RB-omg Darwin caused him to not move validating our roles. However, this is weirding me out. I know I’m good but why are you so convinced that I’m good Jerry lol. Just cause you were tracked doesn’t mean you should have been able to instantly confirm that I was in fact the roleblocker. Also, unless I’m reading this wrong, if nibbles commuted, there’s a chance he was attacked last night and he avoided it? Unless I’m misunderstanding commuter. Still don’t have a claim from Larry either so I’m not sure what to think of this rn.

Tom Cat wrote:Additionally, not to meta this, but if we consider how Larry has been swapped around so much... it would explain why no one was killed n1. :/

Tom Cat wrote:I’m fucking stupid. I just realized Quacker was killed .-.

Tom Cat wrote:Yes totally a fake town slip. That’s why I said maybe you avoided death with your ability lol.

Tom Cat wrote:My belief at this stage is Larry is almost certainly scum until proven otherwise so Vote Larry and if there’s 2 maf it’s either you or Gumball cause I’m really not buying VT after fake vig claim and your claim is also a bit susp. Also, who did you track Last night Jerry? Cause that might give us some ideas as to what’s going on. Unless you were like an OS tracker.

RolePm:

The Winner!:

Track-Immune Mafia Goon,:

Vanilla Townie:

Ascetic townie:

Town One shot roleblocker:

Town one shot Gladiator:

Town Tracker:

One Shot bullet proof mafia watcher:

One shot watch immune Doctor:

Jerry Mouse wrote:awww well played scum.


I kinda had the feeling Nibbles was a deepwolf during that last day but I was only going to try to solve that if we got the partner first which we sadly didnt.

In hindsight, Tom was pretty clean after Day 2 but eh, hindsight is always 20/20.

Incidentally, what were the n1 scum?